Plan for the signal
Use the seasonal outlook to prepare capacity, access, water, and logistics.
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC · UPDATED 05 AUG 2026
Pacific to field.
One clear operating view.
Move between official Pacific observations, the CPC regional outlook, and an optional NWS field forecast. Each source keeps its own values, times, and limits.
ALERT STATE
EL NIÑO ADVISORY
Strengthening through the end of 2026
LIVE OPERATIONS DECK
Source-separated overview
Pacific / Region / Field
What does this Pacific source report?
- Niño region
- Niño 3.4
- Anomaly
- Not available
- Source period
- Not available
- Source state
- Checking
This is a tropical-ocean observation. It is not a regional or field forecast.
Open complete Pacific evidenceWhat does CPC show for this region and window?
- Selected region
- Washington
- Window
- ASO 2026
- Temperature shares
- Not available
- Precipitation shares
- Not available
Area share is regional coverage, not the chance of that weather at a field. This view does not say that El Niño caused the outlook.
Open complete regional evidenceWhat does NWS show for this exact field hour?
- Exact hour
- No forecast loaded
- Temperature
- Not available
- Wind from
- Not available
- Maximum prevailing wind
- Not available
- Rain chance
- Not available
- Relative humidity
- Not available
- Containing six-hour NWS alert overlap
- Not available
Alert overlap applies to the containing six-hour period. It does not give an exact alert time inside this hour. Each limit checks one related forecast value. A match is not a safety result or a work decision.
Load or open the complete seven-day forecastPlanning sequence · independent sources and times. These sources cover different places, periods, units, and methods. Do not read the scene as a causal path, agreement result, severity score, yield forecast, or farm recommendation.
PLAIN-LANGUAGE VIEW
Here’s the short version.
No meteorology degree needed. The detailed numbers are still available whenever you switch simple mode off.
A large area of the tropical Pacific is warmer than usual, and the air above it is responding.
This is a broad heads-up. It cannot tell us exactly when it will rain or what will happen in one field.
Choose your region below, then check the official seven-day field forecast before weather-sensitive work.
What do the strange weather words mean?
- El Niño
- A recurring warm-ocean pattern that can nudge seasonal weather in different parts of the country.
- Anomaly
- The difference from what is normal for that place and time of year.
- Favored
- More likely than the other choices, but not promised.
- Confidence
- How strongly the available evidence supports the outlook.
Important: This page helps with planning. For an actual field decision, use the local forecast, alerts, field conditions, product labels, and your own operating limits.
01 / OCEAN STATE
Pacific field
SCHEMATIC VIEW · NOAA INDEX VALUES
NIÑO 3.4
+2.47°F
Relative monthly SST anomaly
Text alternative for the Pacific field
The visual shows a schematic Pacific basin. It places the selected Niño 3.4 anomaly in geographic context. It is not a measured gridded sea-surface-temperature map.
- Tracked area
- Equatorial Pacific, with focus on Niño 3.4
- Time control
- Monthly observations followed by an experimental analog median
- Interaction
- Use the timeline, zoom controls, keyboard arrow keys, or adjacent numeric readout
Data receipt · Pacific field. Observed numbers use NOAA CPC weekly and relative monthly indices. Forecast frames use the unvalidated analog median. The animated field is an explanatory schematic, not a gridded ocean analysis.
OFFICIAL PACIFIC OBSERVATIONS
Compare the four Niño regions.
NOAA reports a separate sea-surface-temperature anomaly for each region. An anomaly is the source temperature estimate minus its reference.
Read each source separately. Weekly SST anomalies and monthly relative SST anomalies use different NOAA reference methods. Do not subtract one row from the other. The regions overlap, so the ordered cards are not a map or a distance scale.
SELECTED REGION
Region unavailable
No verified region values are available.
Fixed display and validation scale: −18°F to +18°F. Zero is centered. This scale is not an ENSO threshold or phase category.
These tropical ocean values are the same for Washington, Oregon, California, and Arizona. They do not state local rain, heat, snow, water supply, crop response, yield, field safety, or the cause of a local event. Use the official CPC outlook for regional planning and the NWS Field Window for the next seven days.
Open the complete four-region source table
| Niño region | Weekly SST anomaly | Weekly source period | Weekly source state | Monthly relative SST anomaly | Monthly source period | Monthly source state |
|---|
Source receipt unavailable.
02 / COUPLING MONITOR
Four independent Pacific checks.
Use each check for its stated ocean or atmosphere quantity. The sources use different periods and units. They do not predict local farm conditions.
CHECKING 4 SOURCESRead four different Pacific checks.
FieldForge shows ocean-surface temperature, deeper warm water, a coupled ocean-air index, and air pressure. Read each source in its own units and source period.
- RONI: Is the three-month surface-ocean anomaly positive, zero, or negative for its stated source period?
- MEI.v2: Is the two-month coupled ocean-air index positive, zero, or negative for its stated source period?
- Upper ocean: Is the monthly upper-ocean temperature anomaly positive, zero, or negative for its stated source period?
- SOI: Is the monthly pressure index positive, zero, or negative for its stated source period?
Read each lane by itself. These measures use different data, periods, and units. Do not compare their numeric sizes.
- Latest
- —
- Source period
- —
- Observed through
- —
- Status
- CHECKING
View all plotted RONI values
| Period | Observed through | Value |
|---|
- Latest
- —
- Source period
- —
- Observed through
- —
- Status
- CHECKING
View all plotted MEI.v2 values
| Period | Observed through | Value |
|---|
Upper 984 ft temperature anomaly
Monthly equatorial average for the source-defined upper 300 m layer, from 160°E to 80°W.
Official NOAA data ↗- Latest
- —
- Source period
- —
- Observed through
- —
- Status
- CHECKING
View all plotted upper-ocean values
| Period | Observed through | Value |
|---|
Southern Oscillation Index
Monthly standardized Tahiti-minus-Darwin pressure index.
Official NOAA data ↗- Latest
- —
- Source period
- —
- Observed through
- —
- Status
- CHECKING
View all plotted SOI values
| Period | Observed through | Value |
|---|
EXACT SOURCE PERIODS · 18 END DATES
Pacific Coupling Evolution
Use one exact end date to inspect four separate NOAA products. Marks share a calendar position only. Each lane keeps its own units, source period, sign meaning, and fixed scale.
Keep the lanes separate. Equal end dates do not mean equal averaging periods. Do not compare marker height or numeric size between lanes. The fixed scales are display and validation guards, not ENSO thresholds.
Source date unavailable
The four products remain separate.
Select a date. Left and Right move one source period. Page Up and Page Down move three source periods. Home and End go to the first and last date.
Complete source-period table
Four-source sign and reference key
| Source | Period | Period start | Period end | Observed through | Value | Source state | Retrieved | Source SHA-256 |
|---|
Data receipt unavailable.
Data receipt · The four source checks are loading. Each source keeps its own observation date and freshness state.
03 / TRAJECTORY
Official outlook. Model guidance. Lab comparison.
Keep each source in its proper role. CPC gives the official expert outlook. NMME gives model guidance. The FieldForge analog is an experiment.
NOAA expects the current Pacific pattern to continue.
That changes the odds for parts of a season, but it cannot promise rain, heat, snow, or crop results at your farm.
Trust order: NOAA’s official outlook first. Computer-model guidance second. The FieldForge historical comparison is an experiment only.
North American Multi-Model Ensemble
NOAA CPC-hosted raw model guidance · corrected plume available
VERIFIED GUIDANCE
NMME multi-model mean
Individual model means
Range of model means · not probability
Raw-guidance limit. These numeric values do not include the CPC plume amplitude correction. View the official corrected plume. This tropical Pacific guide does not forecast regional rain, heat, snow, water supply, crop loss, or yield.
Full NMME text table
| Month | NMME mean · °F | Model-mean range · °F | Models |
|---|
Model roster
| Model | Center | Members |
|---|
Current NMME numeric guidance is not available. Use the CPC expert outlook until a verified artifact is available.
Source receipt and method limits
- Cycle
- Unavailable
- Models
- Unavailable
- Calibration
- Unavailable
- Artifact
- Unavailable
- Expiry
- Numeric values hide when the artifact expires · no analog substitution
NOAA CPC consensus
Official · issued July 2026
Probability by overlapping 3-month season. Strength does not guarantee local impacts.
Data receipt · Official chart. NOAA CPC consensus strength probabilities, issued July 2026. These are event-strength probabilities. They are not local rain, heat, crop-loss, or water-supply probabilities.
FieldForge experiment · analog ensemble
Experimental · 12 unique, non-overlapping historical events
CURRENT EXPERIMENTAL MEDIAN PEAK · NOT VALIDATED
+2.43°F
DEC 2026
Observed monthly relative Niño 3.4 · °F anomaly
FieldForge analog median + historical 20–80% outcome band · not calibrated
El Niño reference
MODEL EVIDENCE
SKILL NOT ESTABLISHED
The blocked hindcast evidence is loading. Use the CPC expert outlook for decisions.
RETROSPECTIVE MODEL CHECK
Prediction Evidence Explorer
Balanced retrospective diagnostic; not a current forecast score.
Lower MAE means smaller historical error at the same lead. It does not by itself establish forecast skill. Connected lines guide the eye between separate forecast leads; they do not estimate values between leads or select a model.
SELECT FORECAST LEAD
Use Left or Up for the prior lead, Right or Down for the next lead, Home for lead 1, and End for lead 9.
Historical mean absolute error
°F
FieldForge analog
Persistence
Calendar mean
Trend baseline
Historical outcome-band coverage
0–100%
Observed coverage
Nominal 60%
EXACT SELECTED LEAD
Lead not available
Retrospective historical cases · not a current forecast. This evidence covers tropical relative Niño 3.4 only. It does not measure regional rain, heat, snow, water, yield, disease, loss, safety, or farm decisions. The formal 30-year and comparable official-model tests are unavailable.
Open exact values for all nine leads
| Lead | Analog error | Persistence | Calendar mean | Trend baseline | Band coverage | Starts |
|---|
This test covers tropical relative Niño 3.4 only. It does not measure regional rain, heat, snow, water, yield, disease, loss, safety, or farm decisions.
Method and audit receipt
- Model
- Not available
- Period
- Not available
- Protocol
- Not available
- Truth
- Not available
- Official comparator
- Not available
- Artifact
- Current evidence receipt
Data receipt · FieldForge experiment. This unvalidated historical comparison is not NMME and is not the CPC expert outlook. It does not create a regional or farm forecast.
04 / WESTERN FARM LENS
Official western region and field data.
Select a season and region. Read the official CPC regional area shares separately from the official three-day NWS field forecast.
Choose a region and season to see official regional data.
Read temperature and precipitation separately. Farm actions are not published because agronomic review is not complete.
Pacific monitoring: Checking source coverage. Regional planning still uses CPC seasonal maps and local field data.
OFFICIAL NWS · SEVEN-DAY FIELD WINDOW
NWS source method (opens in a new tab)
Check the next seven days at your field.
Enter a point in Washington, Oregon, California, or Arizona. FieldForge gets the official hourly forecast and active point alerts from the National Weather Service.
Change the field point The point entry and optional limits are kept at the top of the page.
NWS FIELD WINDOW
Seven-day forecast
- Updated
- Not available
- Valid through
- Not available
- Field point
- Not available
- Units
- U.S. customary
First 24 hours at this field point
Four exact six-hour NWS periods are shown first. Forecast values, your optional limits, and NWS alert overlap stay separate. This section does not rank periods or say that work is safe.
Matches your limits
Outside your limits
Limits not set
Could not check all limits
EXACT-HOUR FIELD ATLAS · OFFICIAL NWS SOURCE VALUES
Read the next seven days on one linked clock.
Each mark is one exact official NWS forecast hour. Conditions, four measurements, wind direction, your related limits, and six-hour NWS alert overlap stay separate. FieldForge does not smooth, combine, rank, or choose a work time.
Load a current official forecast to draw this timeline.
Use the slider or the arrow buttons. Page Up and Page Down move six hours.
Select an exact hour
No current hourly value is selected.
- Temperature
- Not availableLimit check unavailable
- Maximum prevailing wind
- Not availableLimit check unavailable
- Rain chance
- Not availableLimit check unavailable
- Relative humidity
- Not availableLimit check unavailable
Condition text, day or night, and the containing six-hour NWS alert overlap will appear here.
ONE CLOCK · SEPARATE SOURCE LANES
Compare exact hours without changing the scale.
Temperature and maximum-prevailing-wind scales use all seven days and do not change between pages. Rain chance and relative humidity stay on 0–100% scales. NWS alert overlap belongs to the containing six-hour period.
Select an hour in the first row. Left and Right move one hour. Home and End move within the shown segment. Page Up and Page Down move six hours. On a touch screen, move the atlas left or right.
| Source lane |
|---|
WIND SHIFT EXPLORER · EXACT OFFICIAL HOURS
See where the forecast wind comes from and where it moves next.
NWS direction names where the wind comes from. Each arrow points downwind. Speed is the maximum prevailing wind for that exact hour. This view does not rank hours or say that field work is safe.
✓Within entered maximum
↑!Above entered maximum
—Maximum not set
×Limit check unavailable
Exact-hour wind direction is unavailable.
Select an hour to update every exact-hour view. Use Left and Right for one hour. Home and End move within the shown 24-hour page. Page Up and Page Down move six hours. On a touch screen, move the timeline left or right.
YOUR LIMITS · EXACT OFFICIAL HOURS
See the exact forecast hours when each value is outside an optional limit.
Each row compares one exact official NWS hourly value with its related optional limit. Rows remain separate. This view does not combine conditions, rank hours, or say that work is safe.
✓Within entered limits
↑!Above maximum
↓!Below minimum
—Limit not set
×Official value unavailable
Exact-hour limit checks are unavailable.
Use Left and Right to select the previous or next exact hour. Home and End move within the shown 24-hour page. Page Up and Page Down move six hours. On a touch screen, move the table left or right.
| Limit row |
|---|
Temperature
Maximum prevailing wind
Rain chance
Relative humidity
Open the complete seven-day atlas table
Every row is one exact official NWS forecast hour. Source values, related optional-limit states, and the containing six-hour alert overlap remain separate.
| Time | Day/night | Source condition | Temperature | Wind from | Maximum prevailing wind | Rain chance | Relative humidity | Containing six-hour NWS alert overlap | Temperature limit | Wind limit | Rain-chance limit | Humidity limit |
|---|
Open the complete seven-day wind direction table
Wind direction and maximum prevailing wind remain official source values. Optional wind-limit results stay separate. This table does not rank hours or say that work is safe.
| Time | Wind from | Downwind | Maximum prevailing wind | Entered maximum | Separate limit state |
|---|
Open the complete seven-day limit table
The four limit checks remain separate. This table does not rank hours or say that work is safe.
| Time | Temperature check | Maximum-prevailing-wind check | Rain-chance check | Humidity check |
|---|
OFFICIAL NWS FORECAST LOAD COMPARISON
What changed since the last NWS load?
This compares two successful NWS loads for the same field point. It keeps previous and current source values, source times, and alert changes separate. It also keeps wind source directions separate. It does not score, rank, recommend, or make a work decision.
Temperature
No same-point load comparison is available.
Maximum prevailing wind
No same-point load comparison is available.
Rain chance
No same-point load comparison is available.
Relative humidity
No same-point load comparison is available.
Alerts added
Alerts removed
Open exact hourly comparison table
| Forecast hour | Previous temperature | Current temperature | Temperature change | Previous wind speed and source direction | Current wind speed and source direction | Wind speed and direction change | Previous rain chance | Current rain chance | Rain chance change | Previous humidity | Current humidity | Humidity change |
|---|
NEARBY NWS STATION OBSERVATION
Nearby NWS station observation
These measurements were made at a nearby NWS station, not at the field point. FieldForge does not move or interpolate them to the field. They do not change the forecast or your farm limits.
OFFICIAL NWS FORECAST WINDOWS
Scan each condition across the next seven days.
Each row keeps one forecast condition or alert check separate. Select a 12-hour group on a phone, then select an exact six-hour period for more detail.
| Condition | Period 1 | Period 2 | Period 3 | Period 4 | Period 5 | Period 6 | Period 7 | Period 8 | Period 9 | Period 10 | Period 11 | Period 12 | Period 13 | Period 14 | Period 15 | Period 16 | Period 17 | Period 18 | Period 19 | Period 20 | Period 21 | Period 22 | Period 23 | Period 24 | Period 25 | Period 26 |
|---|
✓ Matches your limits
! Outside your limits
— Limits not set
× Could not check all limits
◆ NWS alert overlap
Read each row by itself. FieldForge does not merge the rows into one result.
Use this field for regional context?
OFFICIAL NWS DATA ONLY
See the NWS forecast for the next seven days.
Choose one forecast value. The chart shows one NWS forecast value at a time. It shows your limit for that forecast value. It does not make a combined score.
LINKED PERIOD VIEW
Focus or compare exact forecast periods.
Choose one exact six-hour period. You can also compare Period A with Period B. Measurements, changes, limits, conditions, and alerts stay separate. This view does not rank work times or say when work is safe.
Focus a period above to see its exact NWS values.
Select a forecast period
Load current NWS data to see period details.
Compare two exact six-hour periods.
Change values are Period B minus Period A. They do not show which period is better or safer.
Period A
Period B
| Measurement | Period A | Period B | Change B − A | Your related limit |
|---|
This comparison does not combine measurements, rank periods, or approve work. Check current NWS alerts, local observations, field conditions, product labels, and qualified guidance.
Forecast value or range
Your limit for this measurement
NWS alert overlap
Period A
Period B
×Not available
Load an official field forecast to draw this chart.
NWS point alerts
NWS alert timing
Each column is one six-hour forecast window. This view shows timing only.
Open alert timing table
| Alert | NWS status | Starts | Ends | Affected windows |
|---|
Open the seven-day detail table
| Time | Conditions | Temperature | Precipitation | Humidity | Maximum prevailing wind |
|---|
FARM PLANNING WINDOW
Match your work dates to the reviewed outlook windows.
This tool finds every overlapping three-month window. It does not make a daily weather forecast.
REVIEWED WINDOW MATCH
Farm planning brief
SOURCE-SEPARATED VIEW
Evidence horizon for this work window
Each row keeps its own source, units, and valid time. The rows do not form a combined forecast.
Next 7 days
Load an official field forecast above.
Current conditions through seasonal context
USDM, CPC, NMME, and Pacific monitoring remain separate.
Open the evidence table
| Source | Valid time | Source state | Value | Units and boundary |
|---|
Field checks for this work window
Washington · ASO 2026 · official CPC precipitation area share
Below-area summary
Equal-chances / mixed summary
Above-area summary
State outlines use 2025 U.S. Census cartographic boundaries. Map fill is a FieldForge display summary, not an official CPC regional category. It uses reviewed CPC polygon area shares over FieldForge regions. California data regions use county unions. The visible California bands are a planning overview.
AREA acres and sq mi
WATER DEPTH inches
DISTANCE miles
WASHINGTON / ASO 2026
SOURCE-ONLY
Washington
This panel shows official regional area shares. Hand-authored farm interpretation and actions are not published because agronomic review is not complete.
TEMPERATURE
Above normal favored
50–60% probability
PRECIPITATION
Below normal favored
33–40% probability
WATER CONDITIONS
Not evaluated by this outlook
Use current local supply, allocation, and field data
OFFICIAL NOAA CPC
SOURCE CHECK
Regional area share
Temperature
Official regional shares are loading.
Precipitation
Official regional shares are loading.
The regional result is a deterministic equal-area grid estimate. It is not a farm-level forecast.
OFFICIAL NOAA CPC · FOUR SEASONS
SOURCE CHECK
Season-by-season regional outlook
Each bar is the percent of the selected region in an official CPC category. It is not the chance of that weather at a field. Temperature and precipitation remain separate.
Above normal
Below normal
Equal chances
No data
Conflict
SELECTED OFFICIAL CELL
Season detail
- Above-normal area
- Not available
- Below-normal area
- Not available
- Equal-chances area
- Not available
- No-data area
- Not available
- Conflict area
- Not available
Official probability bands inside the selected region
Probability percent and regional area percent are different quantities.
Open the complete eight-cell table
| Season | Valid dates | Variable | Above area | Below area | Equal chances | No data | Conflict | Probability bands and area |
|---|
Official seasonal regional values are loading.
OFFICIAL NOAA CPC · LINKED SEASON VIEW
SOURCE CHECK
Seasonal Outlook Path
Each mark is the exact percent of the selected FieldForge region in one CPC category. Straight guides connect separate, overlapping three-month outlook windows. They do not interpolate between windows, show land moving between categories, change field probability, combine temperature with precipitation, or select a season.
SELECT WINDOW
FOCUS CATEGORY
TEMPERATURERegional category area
PRECIPITATIONRegional category area
Window detail
Temperature
Precipitation
Open all exact shares and arithmetic differences
| Window and variable | Valid dates | Above normal | Below normal | Equal chances | No data | Conflict |
|---|
Official seasonal path values are loading.
OFFICIAL CURRENT CONDITIONS
LOADING
Current drought conditions
A valid date is not available.
Current drought data is loading.
- No D0-D4 category
- D0 / Abnormally dry
- D1 / Moderate drought
- D2 / Severe drought
- D3 / Extreme drought
- D4 / Exceptional drought
D0 is not drought. No D0-D4 category does not mean that all farm conditions are normal.
View 12-week data
| Date | None | D0 | D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D1-D4 |
|---|
This is a regional drought assessment. It is not a soil-moisture measurement. It does not show a water allocation. It stays separate from CPC outlooks, NWS field forecasts, and farm guidance.
Data receipt / Waiting for the official U.S. Drought Monitor artifact.
SOURCE
Official source boundary
CPC area shares are regional coverage values, not field probabilities. Agronomic review is not complete.
OFFICIAL NOAA CPC · SIX-REGION VIEW
SOURCE CHECK
Official CPC region cross-section
Select one three-month window above. Read the official temperature and precipitation area shares for each FieldForge region.
Above normal
Below normal
Equal chances
No data
Conflict
Temperature regional area shares
Precipitation regional area shares
Each percentage is the share of one region in a CPC outlook category. It is not the chance of that weather at a field. Region sizes differ. Do not add, average, or rank the regions. Temperature and precipitation stay separate.
Open the complete 12-row source table
| Region and variable | Valid dates | Above area | Below area | Equal chances | No data | Conflict | Probability bands and area | Equal-area samples | Source state |
|---|
Official six-region values are loading.
05 / EXPERIMENT
Stress-test the signal.
Change two precursors to see how the experimental analog trajectory responds. This is a sensitivity tool—not an official forecast.
ADJUSTED MODEL PEAK
+2.43°F
No change from the baseline analog run.
06 / DATA STATUS
Know what is fresh before you use it.
Each source family has its own issue time. A fresh observation does not make an older outlook or farm interpretation current.
- Ocean observations
- Snapshot · checking source time
- ENSO discussion
- Issued 09 Jul 2026
- ENSO strength outlook
- Issued Jul 2026
- RONI
- Checking source period
- MEI.v2
- Checking source period
- Upper 984 ft anomaly
- Checking source period
- SOI
- Checking source period
- CPC regional GIS
- Source check in progress
- Agronomic interpretation
- Not published · agronomic review pending
- Analog model
- Version 0.1 · experimental and unvalidated
07 / LIMITS
Use this to decide what to check next.
Pacific Signal is decision-support software under development. It does not replace official warnings, a local forecast, field measurements, or qualified farm advice.
Not a local weather forecast
ENSO changes seasonal odds across large areas. It does not give a rain amount, storm date, frost time, or field-level temperature.
Not a crop-loss model
Agronomic actions are not published. The regional outlook does not measure damage, predict yield, or know crop stage, soil, irrigation, or pest pressure.
Not operational advice
Do not use this view by itself for planting, spraying, irrigation, insurance, water allocation, worker safety, or regulatory decisions.
Experimental model
The analog ensemble is educational and unvalidated. NOAA CPC consensus is the authoritative forecast shown here.
Before field action: check the National Weather Service, local extension guidance, soil and crop conditions, water allocations, product labels, and qualified advisers.
08 / PROVENANCE